The main concern revolves around a possible move by Azerbaijan through which it would gain control of the sole border strip shared by Iran and Armenia, effectively cutting off the crucial land route between Iran and Russia.
As illustrated in the attached map, Azerbaijan, who controls Nagorno-Karabakh since it’s latest war with Armenia in 2020, still has no land connection with its isolated Nakhchivan region. Separating the two is an Armenian corridor, which also borders Iran, through which Iran conducts its land-based trade with Russia.
Additional reports indicate that Armenia, Azerbaijan, and even Iran have recently deployed military forces closer to the border triangle area (outlined in red on the map), heightening concerns of a potential military confrontation.
